According to Cocoa Radar, global cocoa markets continue to recalibrate following the extreme tightness of 2024–2025. Over the past seven days, prices have remained under pressure, with New York cocoa easing toward ~$3,133/ton and London near £2,328/ton. The shift reflects improving supply visibility, a firmer US dollar, and persistently weak demand signals.
Crucially, the narrative is no longer one of acute scarcity. Côte d’Ivoire arrivals have reached 1.392 million tonnes – just 2.5% below last season – indicating a materially more comfortable supply backdrop than markets had priced in during the height of last year’s rally.
However, this is not a clean transition to surplus. Weather conditions remain uneven, with farmers reporting insufficient rainfall across several regions. The market is now operating in a fragile equilibrium: better supplied than feared, but still highly sensitive to mid-crop weather developments.
Côte d’Ivoire Buyback Crisis: A Structural Warning Signal
What began as a stabilisation effort in Côte d’Ivoire is evolving into a broader governance and market credibility challenge.
Falling global prices have exposed a mismatch with the country’s fixed farmgate pricing system, triggering defaults on at least 100,000 tonnes of purchase contracts. This breakdown has contributed to a stock build-up estimated at up to 200,000 tonnes, forcing state-backed intervention to absorb excess supply.
Authorities have since moved to rebalance the system through large-scale contract sales and farmgate price adjustments. Yet concerns around transparency and execution persist, raising deeper questions about institutional credibility and contract integrity.
This episode signals a structural inflection point. The long-standing pricing model – designed for stability – is now under strain in a more volatile global market environment. Without reform, similar disruptions are likely to recur during future price cycles.
Demand Weakness Becomes the Dominant Constraint
While supply conditions improve, demand remains the weakest pillar of the cocoa complex.
Grinding data shows only marginal year-on-year growth, with cumulative figures still down প্রায় 6%. At the consumer level, chocolate prices remain elevated due to earlier high-cost hedging by manufacturers, delaying any meaningful retail price relief.
The result is a lagged demand response: consumption remains subdued even as raw material costs fall, reinforcing downward pressure on futures markets.
Supply Dynamics Are Shifting – But Not Without Risk
Improved rainfall earlier in the season and strong arrivals are narrowing previous deficits, with expectations building for a more stable 2025–26 crop outlook.
However, above-average rainfall introduces secondary risks, including black pod disease and quality deterioration if drying conditions worsen. While not yet widespread, these factors remain critical watchpoints.
At the same time, Ghana continues to face structural financing constraints within its purchasing system, highlighting broader fragility across origin markets.
