According to CocoaRadar Market Intelligence, Lindt & Sprüngli is on course for its weakest quarterly stock market performance in 17 years, underlining growing evidence that the chocolate industry’s ability to pass record cocoa costs through to consumers is beginning to weaken.
The Swiss premium chocolatier’s participation certificates have fallen around 15% since the end of March after sales volumes softened following price increases approaching 20% introduced last year to offset unprecedented cocoa costs.
The decline comes even though cocoa futures have retreated almost 60% from the record highs reached in late 2024. However, because Lindt secures cocoa through long-term procurement contracts, the company is not expected to benefit materially from lower bean prices until 2027. In response to slowing demand, Lindt has already begun selectively reducing retail prices in Switzerland and Germany during 2026 in an effort to restore competitiveness.
Investor sentiment deteriorated further after the company reduced its 2026 organic sales growth guidance to 4–6%, down from the 6–8% forecast issued in March, citing weaker consumer confidence alongside higher transport and packaging costs linked to ongoing geopolitical disruptions.
Time for Price Reductions
Several equity analysts now believe further price reductions may be required to rebuild volumes, particularly across European markets where consumers have proven increasingly resistant to sustained chocolate price inflation.
For cocoa markets, Lindt’s performance reinforces an increasingly important theme: although cocoa prices have fallen sharply from last year’s extremes, lower futures prices have yet to translate into improved profitability or stronger consumer demand. Most manufacturers remain exposed to cocoa purchased at significantly higher prices, meaning procurement cycles are unlikely to reset for another 12–18 months.
