Cocoa prices have surged to unprecedented levels, sparking concerns that the rising costs will make chocolate more expensive for consumers worldwide. Industry analysts are warning that supply pressures are likely to exacerbate the situation in the coming months.
On Monday, cocoa futures climbed by as much as 5.5%, reaching $11,925 per tonne and surpassing the previous record of $11,722 set in April. Prices have now nearly tripled in the past year, prompting major chocolatiers such as Lindt & Sprüngli and Hershey to implement price hikes.
The root of the issue lies in poor harvests from Ghana and the Ivory Coast – key players in the global cocoa market, responsible for around 60% of the world’s cocoa bean production. Earlier this year, production setbacks caused by unfavourable weather conditions created significant shortages. Although harvests have since resumed, further challenges loom on the horizon.
Weather Threats Persist in West Africa
Severe and unpredictable weather continues to affect cocoa-growing regions. Heavy rainfall combined with Harmattan winds – a dry, dusty seasonal wind that can sap moisture from the soil and stress crops – is threatening yields. According to Mark Bowman, an analyst at ADM Investor Services, cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are already falling below the seasonal average.
“The slowdown raises additional concerns that this year’s crop will not be sufficient to prevent yet another production deficit,” Bowman explained. He further noted that Harmattan winds are forecast to bring drier and warmer conditions over the next seven to ten days, potentially limiting production even further.
Nicko Debenham, a sustainability adviser, added that concerns over weather conditions have shifted global expectations. “The combination of mid-crop concerns in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, along with the arrival of the Harmattan, has intensified fears of further damage. As a result, projections have shifted from a potential surplus to a likely global deficit by the end of the current season.”
Long-Term Impact on Chocolate Supply
Beyond immediate challenges, experts are raising alarm over the long-term sustainability of cocoa production. The cacao plant, which produces cocoa seeds, is increasingly struggling to thrive in changing climates. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), if this trend persists, global chocolate supplies could face severe shortages by 2050.
Wider Impact on Commodity Prices
The cocoa crisis comes at a time when other commodities are also seeing significant price hikes. Coffee beans, another global staple, have reached a record $3.44 per pound, placing additional strain on consumers.
For chocolate lovers and coffee drinkers alike, the outlook remains uncertain, with weather volatility and supply constraints likely to keep prices elevated in the months ahead.
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